A data-backed quantitative trading strategy — built on 7.3 years of historical data, 2,400+ historical trades. Trade the sweep. Ride the trend. Shared as educational trade ideas via Telegram.
SwingQuant is built by economics and mathematics graduates with a systematic, quantitative approach. Every trade idea generated by this strategy has been validated across 7.3 years of historical data — not developed on intuition or discretionary bias.
The strategy has been stress-tested using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations drawing from 7.3 years of historical trade data to assess robustness under a range of market conditions. These results are shared for educational purposes — they illustrate historical behaviour, not future outcomes.
| Instrument | Rec. Risk | Hist. Win Rate | Signals / Mo (Hist.) | Hist. Monthly Avg | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Gold | 0.50% | 33.6% | ~4.5 | +1.28% | Primary |
| 💻 Nasdaq | 0.75% | 56.4% | ~2.7 | +0.79% | Primary |
| 🇩🇪 DAX | 0.65% | 45.8% | ~2.2 | +0.49% | Primary |
| 📈 S&P 500 | 0.50% | 43.2% | ~3.0 | +0.42% | Secondary |
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | 0.75% | 47.5% | ~2.0 | +0.34% | Anchor |
Markets frequently move in correlation — particularly during macro-driven events such as dollar strength, risk-off episodes, or sector rotations. When correlated instruments signal simultaneously (for example, Gold and USD/JPY both triggering during a sharp dollar move), taking both positions can inadvertently stack directional exposure and amplify drawdown risk beyond what any single trade's sizing would suggest.
To manage this, our system monitors inter-instrument correlation in real time. When two or more instruments are exhibiting elevated correlation, we will filter duplicate signals and only surface the highest-conviction setup — rather than issuing both alerts simultaneously. Members are also notified when correlation conditions are elevated so they can apply additional discretion to their own position sizing. The recommended risk levels in the table above are calibrated conservatively to account for periods where multiple positions may be open concurrently.
⚠ IMPORTANT — HISTORICAL DATA, NOT A FORECAST. All figures above are derived from backtests over January 2019 – March 2026 using OANDA historical data on TradingView. Monthly averages, win rates, and Monte Carlo pass rates reflect what would have occurred historically — not what will happen in the future. Real trading involves spreads, slippage, missed signals, and changing market conditions. Drawdown periods will occur. A meaningful reduction in live performance versus backtested results should be expected. The time to reach any profit target will vary depending on current market conditions. All figures are shown for educational illustration only. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
SwingQuant is built around a single, systematic edge: identifying institutional order flow at key structural levels where retail stop losses accumulate — and positioning ahead of the subsequent reversal. The strategy uses one entry signal type and one dynamic trailing exit, applied consistently across our full instrument suite.
Price breaks beyond a significant structural level — a prior day high, weekly low, or established swing point — where retail stop orders are concentrated. The system identifies the precise bar at which price reaches into this liquidity pool before momentum begins to stall.
A valid signal candle must close back an optimised percentage into its range from the sweep extreme — a threshold calibrated per instrument to filter noise and capture only high-conviction reversals. Candles failing this filter are discarded entirely.
Before a signal is issued, five independent filters must align: EMA trend structure, intra-bar momentum on the 1-hour timeframe, volatility environment, overextension screening, and session timing. All five must confirm. A single failure suppresses the signal.
There is no fixed take-profit. Once a trade reaches a defined R-multiple threshold, the dynamic trailing exit activates — locking in profit while allowing the trade to run. The trail is calibrated as a multiple of the instrument's Average True Range (ATR), adapting in real time to current volatility conditions. Trail update alerts are sent to your phone each time the floor ratchets higher.
Every signal is validated by 1-hour momentum analysis nested within the 4-hour signal bar. The strategy requires aligned directional pressure across multiple hourly closes — not just a single candle.
The signal candle must close back an optimised percentage into its range from the wick extreme — a per-instrument threshold that adapts to each market's volatility characteristics. This filters low-quality wicks and ensures only structurally significant price rejections generate alerts.
A multi-period EMA framework ensures every entry is directionally aligned with the prevailing trend. Counter-trend setups are automatically suppressed regardless of how clean the rejection candle appears.
The trailing stop activates once a trade reaches a defined R-multiple and dynamically tracks price using a volatility-adjusted ATR multiple. As the trail ratchets up, you receive a Telegram alert in real time.
Gold does not trade like the Nasdaq. Each instrument is calibrated independently — with ATR multipliers, rejection thresholds, and risk sizing matched to its specific volatility profile and historical behaviour.
The strategy has been evaluated across COVID volatility, the 2022 rate hiking cycle, carry unwind events, the AI equity bull run, and 2025 tariff-driven volatility. Seven years of market regimes, one consistent methodology.
Forex, indices, commodities, and crypto — diversified across sessions, volatility profiles, and correlation clusters. DXY acts as a macro signal instrument: dollar strength or weakness is used to identify which FX pairs warrant attention, directing focus toward the strongest or weakest currency in the current environment.
* DXY does not generate direct trade alerts. It is used as a macro filter to gauge dollar directional bias and identify the strongest/weakest FX currency, helping to prioritise which pairs to focus on at any given time.
One entry signal alert when the system confirms a setup. One trailing stop update alert each time the floor ratchets to a new level as the trade develops.